Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 12.053565 13.555763 15.282925 17.442247 20.108596 23.347597 27.668723
2024-10-27 9.843787 11.562878 13.684358 16.565297 20.495720 25.872144 34.193276
2024-11-03 9.638549 11.782726 14.611130 18.781326 25.106297 35.026743 53.612979
2024-11-10 9.106701 11.446109 14.681958 19.754875 28.122450 42.881690 76.146592
2024-11-17 8.173054 10.425550 13.622007 18.807419 27.787487 44.814954 88.326185
2024-11-24 7.619365 9.869174 13.148573 18.666915 28.752394 49.549922 111.871637
2024-12-01 7.136347 9.361094 12.677295 18.434466 29.466931 54.052552 140.756818
2024-12-08 6.772711 8.992444 12.373571 18.427158 30.600254 60.072081 186.326662
2024-12-15 6.507695 8.746472 12.232289 18.675506 32.315535 68.569867 268.339256
2024-12-22 6.122832 8.285729 11.695501 18.114787 32.122452 71.564085 331.228448
2024-12-29 5.877109 8.024103 11.464102 18.099229 33.183449 79.254988 484.705551
2025-01-05 5.555209 7.621107 10.960470 17.488007 32.672861 81.307508 602.733073
2025-01-12 5.179612 7.128971 10.298880 16.552010 31.332027 80.293355 694.136332
2025-01-19 4.855423 6.703919 9.727397 15.745266 30.195108 79.721241 819.495125
2025-01-26 4.989897 7.028377 10.488850 17.789392 37.287985 123.179927 22060.298096
2025-02-02 4.940421 7.042884 10.693931 18.684046 41.589052 163.747404 NaN
2025-02-09 4.671733 6.670830 10.153247 17.813397 39.995916 161.818381 NaN
2025-02-16 4.514158 6.480641 9.941561 17.684120 40.878171 181.953419 NaN
2025-02-23 4.358423 6.285424 9.706306 17.470149 41.422344 201.500579 NaN
2025-03-02 4.237432 6.144122 9.564326 17.463421 42.737911 234.131518 NaN
2025-03-09 4.150092 6.056790 9.520254 17.692025 45.062895 291.165597 NaN
2025-03-16 3.990118 5.834086 9.195609 17.175692 44.264581 301.315172 NaN
2025-03-23 3.891372 5.715848 9.071581 17.161355 45.572697 357.426052 NaN